Asia: Is the export upcycle broadening beyond tech?

Research evidence excerpt

Asia: Is the export upcycle broadening beyond tech?

Global Markets Research

6 July 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia Pacific/Asia ex-Japan

Research AnalystsAsia: Is the export upcycle broadening beyond

Asia Economicstech?

Si Ying Toh, CFA - NSL

AI-related investment spillovers, commodity price effects and a boost to EV siying.toh@nomura.com

exports due to the push for energy security are driving non-tech export growth. +65 6433 6666

Sonal Varma - NSL

• Non-tech exports finally pick up: After lagging the broader export recovery through sonal.varma@nomura.com

much of 2025, non-tech export growth has accelerated into double-digit territory since +65 6433 6527

early 2026. By country, this is most apparent in the open economies, namely

Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.

• Three drivers of non-tech export growth: 1) Capital goods – like electrical machinery

and precision instruments – have led the recovery, reflecting spillovers from the AI-

driven capex cycle; 2) Several traditional products such as chemicals, mineral products

& fuel, plastics & rubber, and precious metals have improved due to price effects; and 3)

the push towards energy security have boosted EV exports, particularly from China.

• Outlook on non-tech exports: We expect a durable recovery in capital goods

exports (machinery), but export growth in the commodity-related sectors is likely to

moderate as war-driven price effects unwind, since underlying demand is still

subdued. The recovery in auto exports also remains heavily concentrated in China.

Overall, the outlook for non-tech export growth appears mixed.

Non-tech exports finally stage a recovery

After lagging the broader export recovery through much of 2025, non-tech exports have

gathered momentum in recent months (Figure 1).