We expect secular growth beyond 2027...: ...Driven by 2.4T/3.2T transceivers, NPO and CPO

Research evidence excerpt

We expect secular growth beyond 2027...: ...Driven by 2.4T/3.2T transceivers, NPO and CPO

Global Markets Research

Zhongji InnoLight 300308.SZ 300308 CH 6 July 2026

EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY

RatingWe expect secular growth beyond 2027... Remains Buy

Target price

Increased from...Driven by 2.4T/3.2T transceivers, NPO and CPO CNY 1,325.00 CNY 1,015.00

Action: Maintain Buy; raise TP to CNY1,325, implying 20.6% upside Closing6 July 2026price CNY 1,098.92

Despite recent share price pull-back in the AI infra sector, we think the fundamental

growth driver for InnoLight remains unchanged in FY26-28F: 1) 1.6T and Silicon Implied upside +20.6%

photonics (SiPh) transceiver upgrade; and 2) NPO (Near-field packaging optics) / CPO

(Co-packaged optics) market expansion. Although there are concerns about component Market Cap (USD mn) 181,397.6

shortages, as well as double bookings from hyperscale AI customers, we think high-end ADT (USD mn) 4,469.0

optical communication products remain key bottlenecks in the AIDC market. We raise our

FY27/28F global shipment forecasts for 800G transceivers to 55mn / 78mn units Relative performance chart

(from 50mn / 71.5mn), and 1.6T to 71.5mn / 126mn units (from 60mn / 110mn), while we

also factor in 2mn / 5mn units of 2.4T in FY27/28F, and 2mn units of 3.2T in 2028F.

We expect the company to maintain 30%~35% market share in the global AIDC

transceiver market due to strong R&D and effective supply chain management. We raise

our FY27-28F revenue / earnings forecasts by 28-37%/30-38% (Fig.1) to reflect the

strong product upgrade, as well as margin expansion. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating

and raise TP to CNY1,325, based on 20x (unchanged) FY27F EPS of CNY66.06, in line

with WIND’s China A share tech/electronic component sector median P/E. The stock is