US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

6 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

ISMServices: The ISM Services index edged lower to 54.0 in June (Nomura: 53.3, +1 212 667 9347

Consensus: 54.0) from 54.5 in May. Business activity and new orders softened in the Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

month, while the employment index moved to expansionary territory (). Labor demand jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

appears steady, but hiring difficulties and labor-cost pressures remain persistent. Notably, +1 212 667 9637

labor was cited both as a commodity in short supply and as one whose price rose (for the Ruchir Sharma - NSI

eleventh consecutive month) in June. ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186Survey details continued to point to lingering cost pressures despite modest declines in

the prices paid and supplier deliveries indices. Respondents flagged elevated prices,

extended lead times, and supply chain constraints. The number of commodities in short

supply rose to nine in June from five in May, with the report describing all of them as

necessary for data center construction. While lower crude prices marginally eased input

costs, AI-related price pressures remained elevated.

Fedspeak: Governor Waller's preparedremarks largely focused on forward guidance. He

suggests guidance can be useful as a policy tool if markets anticipate Fed actions, leading

financial conditions to adjust pre-emptively.

However, Waller also noted that overly rigid guidance can hinder policy, citing the Fed's

2021 guidance that the Fed won’t hike until the economy had returned to full employment.

He also focused on the difficulty of providing guidance when the economy faces diverging