Argentina: USD financing program: Assumptions, buffers and risks

Research evidence excerpt

Argentina: USD financing program: Assumptions, buffers and risks

J P M O R G A N Latin America Emerging Markets

Research

06 July 2026

Argentina

USD financing program: Assumptions, buffers and risks

Economic and Policy Research

Lucila Barbeito

(54-11) 4348-7229

lucila.barbeito@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank Sucursal Buenos Aires

• The government unveiled its full-year 2026-2027 USD financing program Diego(1-212) 834-4321W. Pereira

diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com• International market access remains an option, but not the base case

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• 2027 plan leans on continued rollover of USD local law bonds, and Emerging Market Research

multilateral support, complemented by incremental bilateral financing

Ben Ramsey AC

• Sovereign credit strategy: Stay OW as Argentina continues to offer value (1-212) 834-4308

amid a positive story benjamin.h.ramsey@jpmorgan.com

The government presented its full-year 2026–2027 USD financing program. Leonardo Tiago

Authorities characterized it as “conservative” and noted that, beyond the sources (1-212) 834-2479

outlined below, they have been working for more than a year on additional leonardo.tiago@jpmorgan.com

alternatives that are not included fully in the program (such as bilateral loans). J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Finance Minister Caputo emphasized that the objective is to refinance principal

maturities at the lowest possible rate, while covering interest payments through the

primary surplus. In that context, officials reiterated that access to international

markets remains an option, but not the base case—as long as cheaper alternatives

exist that require less incremental fiscal effort.

Importantly, the authorities have indicated that they do not intend to refinance IMF

maturities. When asked about the U.S.