IAG Checking in for Q2 earnings

Research evidence excerpt

IAG Checking in for Q2 earnings

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

07 July 2026

IAG Overweight

ICAG.MC, IAG SM

Checking in for Q2 earnings Price (06 Jul 26):€5.65

▲Price Target (Dec-27):€6.00

Prior (Dec-27):€5.75

We provide a preview ahead of Q2 earnings (31 Jul). We forecast Q2 group EBIT

at €1.38bn, c4% above Bloomberg consensus €1.33bn. This is lower than prior European Transport & Logistics

year due to the impact from higher fuel costs. Our 2026/27/28E EBIT forecasts Harry J Gowers AC

increase by +6%/0%/0%, and we now forecast 2026E EBIT at €4.8bn, due to lower (44-20) 7134-7522

fuel costs. We expect pricing/demand trends to remain solid and forecast Q2 RASK harry.gowers@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

+4% (+6.2% excluding FX); we are broadly in-line with prior fuel pass-through

Alexia Doganicommentary at c60%. We expect long-haul to be the key driver of robust pricing

(44-20) 3493-3791

in Q2, in particular Transatlantic, LATAM and Asia, with short-haul (ex- alexia.dogani@jpmorgan.com

Domestic) a relative soft spot given the competitive capacity backdrop and timing J.P. Morgan Securities plc

of Easter. On the Transatlantic, total market schedules are broadly flat this summer, Bhavpreet S Batra

with some capacity trimmed versus pre-conflict, and US POS demand (91-22) 6157-5046

commentary remains buoyant. The impact from the World Cup is currently bhavpreet.batra@jpmorgan.com

unknown across the European Flag Carriers but could feasibly provide a boost to J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Transatlantic pricing in June (note that prior large sporting events have generally Shikha Khurana

been neutral for some airlines and sometimes negative given the disruptive impact (91-22) 6157-5022

shikha.khurana@jpmchase.com

to regular leisure/corporate traffic).