Fresenius Medical Care: Revisiting the volume slowdown - with Type 2 diabetes as a key driver, but transplants also at a new higher level. FME is losing share

Research evidence excerpt

Fresenius Medical Care: Revisiting the volume slowdown - with Type 2 diabetes as a key driver, but transplants also at a new higher level. FME is losing share

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

07 July 2026

Fresenius Medical Care

Revisiting the volume slowdown - with Type 2 diabetes Underweight

as a key driver, but transplants also at a new higher FMEG.DE, FME GR

level. FME is losing share Price (15 Jun 26):€40.53

Price Target (Jun-27):€37.40

In this note we look at the latest data for the incidence and prevalence of End Stage European Medical Technologies &

Renal Disease. In particular we note that the trend for a decreasing contribution of Services

patients starting dialysis due to Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) is, if anything, accelerating. David Adlington AC

(44-20) 7134-5828

• Overall incidence of ESRD continues to fall. There continue to be concerns david.adlington@jpmorgan.com

on the lack of dialysis patient growth. Figure 1 sets out how incidence (new Anchal Verma

patients) continues to fall (and actually deteriorated through 2025). This is not (44-20) 3493-6144

a COVID issue any more. Incidence growth for the latest quarter we have data anchal.verma@jpmorgan.com

(Q4 25) was -2.6%, the worst quarter since Q2 22. Q2 2026 should benefit from Philip S Omnou

a weak respiratory season, although anecdotally we have heard this is not the (44-20) 3493-5648

case. philip.omnou@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Type II diabetes continues to drop as a driver of ESRD. We update our

previous analysis of the USRDS data, which shows that T2D continues to drop Specialist Sales contact details:

as a cause of ESRD (Fig 2). In 2020, 47% of patients moving into ESRD were Marjan Daeipour - Specialist Sales -

due to T2D. That has now fallen to 39%, with no signs of any plateau.