J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 7 Jul 26: Genesis Minerals/Regis Resources; Australian credit: Set to soften; Capricorn Metals and More. Mon Jul 06 2026

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 7 Jul 26: Genesis Minerals/Regis Resources; Australian credit: Set to soften; Capricorn Metals and More. Mon Jul 06 2026

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 07 July 2026

Top Stories

Genesis Minerals/Regis Resources (Jonathon Sharp)

GMD interlopes for Vault; stronger logic than RRL/VAU and accretive on risked synergies

GMD has delivered a binding superior proposal to acquire Vault, offering 0.7629 GMD shares plus A$0.475 cash per VAU

share. This implies A$5.27/sh, valuing Vault equity at ~A$5.6bn, a 14.5% premium to the mark-to-market RRL offer and 17.2%

to Vault’s undisturbed price. Vault has deemed the proposal superior, with Regis’s matching right expiring 13 July. Key

takeaways: 1) the strategic logic looks stronger than RRL/VAU given the proximity of KOTH, Tower Hill and Laverton, with

GMD using higher-rated scrip to acquire a lower-multiple earnings base; 2) the deal screens ~33% EPS accretive in FY28,

including only A$50m of post-tax synergies, but fades to broadly neutral in FY29 as GMD’s own earnings step up; and 3) while

GMD discloses ~A$1.5bn of synergies, we risk-weight the number rather than give full credit upfront. Even on risked synergies,

the deal still looks accretive. We retain OW on GMD; A$7.40 PT.

Australian credit: Set to soften (Tom Ryan)

Previous episodes suggest a slowing in housing credit is likely in coming months, reflecting higher interest rates

Business credit is better insulated, with structural tailwinds from non-bank credit growth

Capricorn Metals (Jonathon Sharp) (CMM AU, OW)

In-line JunQ Production, growth projects on track; Retain OW

Key Takeaways: 1) JunQ26 gold production (30.4koz) was in line with JPMe, taking FY26 production (123.6koz) to the top end