JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Some healthy idiosyncratic risk...

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Some healthy idiosyncratic risk...

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

06 July 2026

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Some healthy idiosyncratic

risk...

Marissa Gitler

+1 212 622 2934

marissa.gitler@jpmorgan.com

US Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favored investment themes.

Bottom Line: The macro story is currently being written by micro developments, but the rotation from crowded AI-thematic

risk into under-owned secular Health Care is a clear cross-asset signal. What was once a fundamentally defensible secular

growth trade has become a crowded, momentum-driven microstructure propped up by retail flows and levered ETFs. With

positioning at multi-year extremes and the hyperscaler CAPEX narrative no longer a certainty, the risk/reward for generalist

exposure in select AI themes has deteriorated sharply.

Health Care is quietly becoming the next compounder as the sector offers a rare combination of low current positioning,

strong secular fundamentals, and a reliable seasonal catalyst. The backdrop of potential rate relief would add a further

tailwind via multiple expansion.

Good day! Market-moving news headlines over the long weekend were limited as US equities indexes are bouncing in Monday’s

session..

The main macro update rests in what is inferred by a price move (over any specific headline). Oil is holding around recent

lows amidst streetwide predictions of a forthcoming oil glut. This is because the lasting geopolitical premium has been

unwound, potentially near the point of potential overshoot. Corroborating this move is the fact that funds have sold Brent in

twelve of the last thirteen weeks, reducing their position by a total of 374 million barrels since March 31. While this may indicate