Mexico: April domestic demand - A welcome strong release

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: April domestic demand - A welcome strong release

AmericaBanco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo FinancieroLatin Economic Research J P M O R G A N 06 July 2026Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

driver was residential construction, which surged 12.4%samr. Part of the jump likely reflects

a rebound after a sharp 5.6%samr decline in the prior month. We have noted construction’s

volatility as a reason to temper expectations following April’s strong figures, and we find that

a large portion of that volatility stems from residential construction. Another factor

supporting residential construction may have been the start of projects undertaken by a new

INFONAVIT subsidiary (Mexican federal institute for workers' housing). Finally, non-

residential construction was less volatile and delivered another modest increase (0.1%samr).

The positive news within GFI was not only construction strength, but also that capex

(machinery & equipment) continues to show some improvement. In April, growth turned

positive to 2.5% in 3m/3m saar terms. Details continued to be mixed, with imported M&Eq

gaining momentum, while domestic M&Eq remains depressed. Looking ahead, we expect

2H26 to mark the start of stabilization in investment, but challenges remain. The USMCA

renegotiation and concerns about domestic policy are likely to continue to weigh on

sentiment. Yet, while we do not expect another setback in investment after the recent news

that confirmed a delayed trade deal given forthcoming annual revisions, we also do not expect

a fast machinery & equipment revival given a slow implementation of the revamped Mexico

industrial plan.

Private consumption: Domestic and imported

%3m/3m, saar

6 42

Domestic

4 28

2 14

0 0

-2 Imported -14