HF Sinclair 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Research evidence excerpt

HF Sinclair 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Arun Jayaram AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-8541 06 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

market balances. Midstream should step higher on PPI-linked tariff increases in 3Q. On

opex per bbl, DINO is targeting a near-term consolidated $7.25/bbl level.

• Paper vs. physical and capture headwind. As with the broader refining group, DINO's

realized capture in 2Q will lag the sharp move higher in benchmark indicators, as physical

margins take time to catch up to paper cracks in a rapidly rising, backwardated

environment. In Mid-Con, crude backwardation is the primary headwind. In the West, the

indicator is pressured by higher Syncrude pricing and market structure driving capture

down. ANS has moved up on overall crude scarcity, higher location demand, WCS

volatility, and weather-related Canadian production hits pulling on ANS as an alternative

for Canadian blends.

• Cash return and balance sheet. DINO returned $167 MM to shareholders in 1Q26,

consisting of $91 MM in dividends and $76 MM in share repurchases. We model $94 MM

of dividends and $140 MM of buybacks in 2Q, which brings the company below its 50%

of adjusted net income payout target for the quarter. Notably, on May 18 DINO entered

into a Stock Purchase Agreement with REH Advisors Inc. to repurchase 1.46 MM shares

at $68.72 per share for an aggregate $100 MM in a privately negotiated transaction funded

with cash on hand, its twenty-first such transaction with REH. Following this deal, DINO

has repurchased $717 MM under its $1 B authorization approved in May 2024, leaving

~$283 MM of remaining capacity.

• Leadership transition progressing. The Board continues its measured CEO/CFO

search across both internal and external candidates.