Thailand Economics: Upside Surprise in Core Despite Weaker Headline Jun CPI

Research evidence excerpt

Thailand Economics: Upside Surprise in Core Despite Weaker Headline Jun CPI

Thailand Economics

07 July 2026 Citi Research

Figure 10. BOT’s private consumption index showed a sharp Figure 11. Vs 2019 levels, tourist arrivals fell sharply in Apr

improvement in durables consumption (especially autos), but rebounded in May across most major markets

though less pronounced in other categories

Dec'19=100 Private consumption indicators Dec'19=100

% of 2019 Tourist arrivals by region/nationality % of 2019

130 150 150

120 125 125

110 100 100

75 75

100 50 50

90 90

25 25

80 80 0 0

70 70 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 Jan-26 Europe America

60 60 ASEAN Other East Asia

Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 South Asia Middle east (3mma, RHS)

Co-Payment Scheme Non-durable Semi-durable Services Durable Africa China

Total

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

Source: Citi Research, CEIC Source: Citi Research, CEIC Data Company Limited

Figure 12. BOT's private investment index rose MoM largely Figure 13. BOI investment applications slowed in 1Q26, but

on vehicle investments, with equipment and construction digital sector applications remain strong

broadly stable

2010=100 Private Investment Inndex indicators Bt Bn BOI Approved Applications

160 700 Other Business Types

150 High Value Services

140 600

Creative

120 Digital

110 400 Utilities

100 Chemicals.Petrochem

90 300

Metals

70 200 E&E

Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-24 Apr-25 Apr-26 Machinery and Autos

Private Investment Index (PII): Seasonally Adjusted (sa) Medical

PII: sa: Private Vehicle Investment Index

0 Agri, Food Biotech PII: sa: Private Machinery and Equipment Investment Index