Alexandria Real Estate Equities: Updated Model w/ Lower 2026/2027 Estimates

Research evidence excerpt

Alexandria Real Estate Equities: Updated Model w/ Lower 2026/2027 Estimates

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

06 July 2026

Alexandria Real Estate Equities Neutral

ARE, ARE US

Updated Model w/ Lower 2026/2027 Estimates Price (02 Jul 26):$52.58

▼Price Target (Dec-26):$52.00

Prior (Dec-26):$57.00

We updated our ARE model and reduced estimates. Our 2026 FFO/share is down

from $6.43 to $6.35 (-29.5% y/y), which compares to Bloomberg consensus of REITs & Real Estate Services

$6.37 and the guidance midpoint of $6.40 (range of $6.30-6.50). Our 2027 FFO/ Anthony Paolone, CFA AC

share is also down from $5.95 to $5.53 (-12.9% y/y), which compares to (1-212) 622-6682

Bloomberg consensus of $5.45. anthony.paolone@jpmorgan.com

Michael W. Mueller, CFA

For 2028, we estimate FFO/share of $5.69, implying a bounce off an earnings (1-212) 622-6689

trough in 2027. While we think this would be positive, our confidence level is low michael.w.mueller@jpmorgan.com

here as ARE has a number of moving parts. It plans significant dispositions/JVs in Nahom Tesfazghi

2H 2026 that could impact the run rate into 2027, and in 2028 there are meaningful (1-212) 622 4884

nahom.tesfazghi@jpmchase.com

lease expirations. For instance, Novartis and Alphabet appear to have 674k sf and

Daniella De Armas Rosales

over $40 million in net rents that expire in that time frame, which could be closer

(1-212) 622-0050

to $60 million in gross revenue (including reimbursements), or about $0.35/share. daniella.dearmasrosales@jpmchase.com

The Novartis space is being marketed for lease and appears to be a known move- J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

out; we have not obtained any color on Alphabet’s space, which was leased for

Verily, Alphabet’s life sciences business, but whose HQ was moved to Dallas a