Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Fuel Subsidies, USMCA, Kast Approval Rating, Colombia Fiscal

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Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Fuel Subsidies, USMCA, Kast Approval Rating, Colombia Fiscal

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06 Jul 2026 09:10:57 ET │ 18 pages

Latin America Economics & Strategy

Daily

Brazil Fuel Subsidies, USMCA, Kast Approval Rating, Colombia Fiscal

Ernesto Revilla AC

CITI'S TAKE +1-212-816-2621

ernesto.revilla@citi.com

Today we discuss developments in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia.

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

+44-20-7986-9757Regional Macro —US equity futures opened higher after the holiday break, ahead of

a week that begins with PMI and ISM releases. However, the focus will be luis.costa@citi.com

Wednesday’s publication of the FOMC minutes, which should provide further AC Esteban Tamayo

insight into the views of the Committee’s more hawkish members and the rationale esteban.tamayo@citi.com

behind the more aggressive year-end rate projections reflected in the latest dot plot.

On the regional front, the focus this week will be on June inflation reports, Leonardo Porto AC

particularly the extent to which the combination of lower oil prices and a stronger leonardo.porto@citi.com

US dollar will play out amongst the different jurisdictions.

Paulo Lopes AC

LatAm Strategy Trades — We remain heavy in FX trades. We are long BRL against paulo.lopes@citi.com

EUR and AUD as the current macroeconomic backdrop still suggests resilience for

high real-yielding EM (link). We continue to hold to our vol adjusted (structurally long Thais Ortega AC

USD) long MXN, BRL and TRY vs CAD, CHF and THB, to capture high yielders thais.ortega@citi.com

carry (link).

Felipe Juncal AC

Brazil — Inflation expectations roughly stable (but de-anchored) again this week. felipe.juncal@citi.com

Disappointing industrial production performance in May-26. Trade balance remains

robust in Jun-26.