DLTR HQ Takes (Raising Ests/PT), Macau GGR (-), Trading Flows, ONON +ive Catalyst Watch

Research evidence excerpt

DLTR HQ Takes (Raising Ests/PT), Macau GGR (-), Trading Flows, ONON +ive Catalyst Watch

Briggs Barton - Specialist Sales - US Consumer AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nbriggs.barton@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 06 July 2026

DLTR HQ Takes (Raising Ests/PT), Macau GGR (-), Trading Flows,

ONON +ive Catalyst Watch

Briggs Barton

+1 212 622 2677

briggs.barton@jpmorgan.com

MORNING UPDATE

• DLTR HQ Takes — M. Boss (OW, Analyst Focus List) raises estimates & PT (+$10 to $170 or 40% more upside) and

he notes that his model is still conservative with incremental upside to every line item. On the desk we have seen some

demand recently and think sentiment on DLTR has started to gradually turn more positive (after starting the year as a

more crowded short) as investors grow more comfortable with mgmt’s strategy and the forward catalyst path. Note

• Macau Gaming GGE (July Wk 1) — Trends remain weak reflecting the ongoing drag from the World Cup and tough

compares and weaker consumer sentiment, suggesting potential downside risk to July estimates. Note

• ONON Positive Catalyst Watch — Given the Holiday last week, re-flagging Wendy’s EU sporting goods coverage

reinstatement from Thursday where she has ONON OW/Positive Catalyst Watch, ADS OW, JD Neutral, and PUMA

Neutral. Note

• Flows Last Week — Commentary from Consumer Trading and JPM Positiniong Intelligence

DETAILED COMMENTARY

DLTR HQ Takes - Upside to Every Line Item

M. Boss (OW/Analyst Focus List) raises estimates/PT (+$10 to $170 based on 18x FY28 EPS) following the JPM hosted

meeting + store tours at DLTR HQ and calls out incremental upside to every line item where a fully loaded model would drive

FY28 EPS power of $12 (st $8.46) and get you to equity value of $220-235.