J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

06 July 2026

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning

Intelligence

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Securitized Products & Public

Finance Municipals Strategy

Peter DeGroot AC

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peter.degroot@jpmorgan.com

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– Last week’s limited volume ($4.5bn) and the arrival of July reinvestment

($37bn expected over the 1st half of the month, and $45bn in full) insulated

municipal prices from Treasury market volatility. After last week’s price

performance, 2yr muni ratios are at 3yr lows, and 30yr municipal/corporate

ratios are ~1.8 sigma rich over 1-3yr horizons.

– Even with richer ratios and significant outperformance in spread product

and the high-yield sector of the market, it is hard to construct a scenario in

which municipal market prices fall this week against a manageable (~$10bn)

tax-exempt calendar, inflows at the 2nd highest on record for the YTD period (at

$53bn, per LSEG Lipper), and the addition of the aforementioned July

redemption capital.

– Recent strong performance in risky sectors, strong technicals over the 1st half