The Global Point

Research evidence excerpt

The Global Point

yoy in 5M26. We open 30-day positive catalyst watches for China Life and New

China Life regarding to the potential profit alerts.

Michelle Ma, CFA | Amy Jy Chen

China Battery Materials - Lithium into 1st week of July - Reiterate our bullish

call; August is the key timeline to look at

We reiterate our bullish call on lithium to reach Rmb250k/t sometime during

2H26. Supply - we think market overreacted to JXW resumption in previous

weeks, as the restart currently should be only expected in the mining (采矿)

process instead of mineral processing (选矿) as well. That said, scale of

incremental supply each month should be manageable (Citi est. <5,000 tons)

considering the road freight capacities, mining loading capacities, and others.

Demand - Mr. Zeng Yuqun, Chairman of CATL, said CATL's shipment might be over

1,000GWh this year at Davos Forum (see interview, TMTPost, 23 Jun). We also

estimate CATL's 26E production to exceed 1.2TWh, suggesting August is the key

window to bring new capacity on-line. The strong battery production pipeline

should override the impact of JXW resumption, per our perspective, and provide

support to drive ASP to test the key price level by that time.

Jack Shang, CFA | Anna Wang | Jimmy Feng, CFA | Cynthia Wu | Shreyas Madabushi

CEEMEA

MENA Diversified Banks - 2Q26 Results – What to Expect and Stocks to Watch

We expect 2Q26 results impacted in different ways by the US-Iran conflict - with

YoY/QoQ profits both down 60-65% of our coverage MENA banks. While COMI,

ADCB and Rajhi should lead on YoY % earnings growth, we expect relatively muted

set of bottom-line growth numbers from NBK, CBQ & DIB. Key expected trends: (i)

QoQ Revenues mixed amidst CoF pressures & mixed non-II; (ii) Credit costs slightly