Citi‘s Most Read - Europe

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Citi‘s Most Read - Europe

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Citi's Most Read - Europe

June 29 - July 5 06 Jul 2026 07:10:02 ET

ACMost Read Citi Europe Research

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Most Read

Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas - Growing pAIns

Flagship

Post June NFP, a Fed hike in the near term has become much less likely. We take

profits on long USDNOK (closed at 9.8470, Pricing as of 20:07 EST on 02-Jul-26).

In equities, typically the picks and shovels theme persists until the market tops

out, but our US strategist downgraded semis. As our residual Kospi position has

hit its trailing stop, we take profits on our remaining position (closed at 1274,

Pricing as of 20:07 EST on 02-Jul-2026. NB: Futures trading involves substantial

risk of loss.), as well as on EM Asia in GAA. Having said that, we stay overweight US

equities in GAA, and also remain tactically long Europe, as large rotations in US

equity internals are not necessarily a warning sign for the overall index. We

investigate the breakout in copper vs gold, but doubt it is a very bullish cyclical

sign this time around. The EMFX carry trade faces headwinds from extreme

crowdedness and the risk of JPY intervention, warranting caution before adding

exposure.

Adam Pickett | Dirk Willer | Alex Saunders | Giammarco Miani | Charlie Massy-Collier

Global Emerging Markets Strategy - The EM Strategist*

We believe high-yielding emerging markets can remain resilient despite rising US

real yields and a stronger USD. Many EM central banks have maintained less

dovish policies than anticipated, supporting high real rates, while simultaneously

building substantial FX reserves. This environment creates selective opportunities,

and we are initiating a few trades in this backdrop. We recommend receiving 2y2y