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Research evidence excerpt

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Global Equity Research

International First to Market 06 July 2026

Equity Strategy (Mislav Matejka, CFA)

July Chartbook

We have consistently argued since 2 nd half of March to use the equity weakness brought on by the Iran conflict to buy

into, as the off ramp and the eventual deal were likely, in our view. To be clear, the risks of renewed flareups remain, but we

believe one should keep using any dips on the back of adverse geopolitical headlines in order to add. If the conflict impact

keeps getting priced out, as we suspect, then oil prices, inflation rates, inflation expectations, bond yields, central banks rate

projections, and even eventually USD, could all reverse their upmove that was seen during Q2.

| EMEA Base Metals (Patrick Jones), United Kingdom, Sweden, Canada, Norway

Q2’26 into the print: turn more selective as macro risks more balanced, but cost risks into results

season, u/g Antofagasta to OW, stay UW Lundin

Since the start of the Iran-US conflict, MSCI European Metals & Mining is -7% despite copper prices effectively flat over the

period and aluminium prices have returned to pre-war levels. JPM Commodities Research (led by Greg Shearer) see support

for copper prices near term given a ‘tug of war’ between US tariff-driven imports and China consumers ( link ) ahead of a

potential US Section 232 tariff announcement (albeit this poses binary risks for prices). The team also still forecasts ~1.7Mt

deficit in the aluminium market as de-escalation will only permit a gradual return of >2Mtpa of capacity curtailed due to the war.

The spike in oil and energy prices during the conflict has also since unwound, likely implying higher costs into Q2’26 results

season, but declining costs over Q3 & Q4’26.