G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Matt Pheasant AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nmatthew.v.pheasant@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 06 July 2026

EUR Thursday’s payrolls print seems a long time ago (especially after the 2am wake up last night!!),

for the recent dollar narrative it certainly wasn’t the confirmation the market needed to extend.

Having said that the lack of price action in the opposite direction was interesting, I guess drivers

being the mixed details in the data not overriding weakness, still some degree of US

outperformance likely from a flow perspective if the debasement fear does not return, a long

wait to the CPI print next week and a sense that plenty just wanted to get to the long weekend

unscathed. Personally do see it as a bit of a vol killer in the short term, we have come a long

way since Warsh’s first FOMC presser so the Greenback should consolidate in the meantime.

Have therefore neutralized the portfolio overall, do see merits to be funded in chf still versus

where I am digging in, upped the zar longs and reduced the cable short. Don’t mind another

shot at long aud here with a tight stop and keeping a smaller core in eurhuf short.

The euro rally post numbers has failed to sustain for reasons outlined above. However I don’t

really see a trade for now, we are struggling to break through this key technical support area

(1.14-1.1340), maybe we need to see the US CPI print next week for a lager dollar move one

way or another. For Europe itself, our economists did upgrade their GDP forecasts at the back

end of the week (on the oil and gas moves lower) plus also wrote that potential benefits from

fiscal reform in Germany still have some room to run, so in my mind as I had been writing last