Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV: Ahold Delhaize: Q2-26 preview

Research evidence excerpt

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV: Ahold Delhaize: Q2-26 preview

William Woods +44 20 7676 6806 william.woods@bernsteinsg.com 6 July 2026

DETAILS

• The US food market picture looks soft, with industry growth decelerating QoQ, at -1% in Q2 (-120bps vs Q1), predominantly

driven by volumes. Meanwhile, pricing has also deteriorated -20bps QoQ as disinflation feeds through. In this market context,

the company highlights decent performance as they continue steady execution of their strategy, and build on share gains

in Q1. There remains a small SNAP tailwind (+10bps) and the impact from egg deflation (-55bps) although this should

normalise in Q3.

• On the margin side, there were lots of one-off effects in Q1 (winter weather, mix effects, flu campaigns, pharmacy) which

do not flow into Q2, and therefore we shouldn't expect a material improvement in margin. This year Q2 saw further price

investments rolled out across the remainder of the Stop&Shop fleet, which acts a headwind, given a soft comp from last

year, where Q2-25 saw lower price investments.

• In Europe, there are tough comps from the prior year, and as inflation comes down quite a lot in the Netherlands and

Romania (although still c. 6-7%), this will pressure topline, whilst Belgian inflation is flat.

• The cessation of tobacco sales has finally comped out of numbers for the Netherlands and Belgium, supporting topline

(vs. previous quarter which saw -30bps impact).

• In Serbia, the price caps have come off, with a slow and steady recovery in the market, so the rate of change and passing

on price shall feed through later. There are also tougher comps on the back of the price caps from the prior year

• For margins, the Q1 dynamics are still relevant (Serbia headwind, and Romanian synergies)