EM FX Daily Report - 6th July 2026. Mon Jul 06 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 6th July 2026. Mon Jul 06 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 06 July 2026

EM FX

RUB Although off the highs, usd/rub still feels a little bid, driven primarily by local flows, but helped

somewhat by the normal corporate ndf demand. Prefer to play from the long dollar side,

hopefully picking up usd/rub close to 77.00.

ZAR US payrolls on Thursday came in softer than the market had anticipated, triggering a bout of

USD weakness immediately after the release with USD/ZAR dropping from around 16.40 to

roughly 16.25. Friday’s session, however, was notably subdued on the back of the US holiday

with the pair trading mostly sideways. It’s no secret I’ve been constructive on South Africa and

the rand for some time and think that EM carry can still outperform even if the Fed is more

hawkish than the market is expecting. That said, while the broader view remains unchanged, it

may be difficult for USDZAR to sustain a move materially below the 16.10–16.25 area in the

near term. Given that, I’ve trimmed my shorts here and will be looking to re-build the position

on any major spikes.

TRY Clients have been better sellers of USDTRY since 01 July adding to long TRY positions. June

CPI print which came in at 1 pct MoM. While some market participants were hoping for a

softer number, we think the CBT is likely to interpret the print constructively, and we expect

effective funding rates to be lowered back toward 37% at the 23 July meeting. USDTRY price

action remains in line with the expected depreciation path, with state banks adjusting their offer

to 46.8225. Seasonally better current-account dynamics should continue to support TRY in the