G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Matt Pheasant AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

matthew.v.pheasant@jpmorgan.com EM FX Daily Report

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 06 July 2026

JPY Aggressive move higher in USDJPY overnight, with the pair on its way back toward recent

highs after Thursday’s sharp move lower. Tension around JPY remains elevated, and last week’s

weaker-than-expected payrolls print did little to change the broader trajectory. We still think

intervention risk is high at these levels, so we’ve been running long JPY recently. There isn’t

much to add from Friday’s session: the desk saw some JPY supply from HF accounts, partially

offset by demand from systematic and real-money accounts.

CHF USDCHF well off the highs after the softer headline payrolls print. We still have a bearish CHF

view but admittedly reduced into NFP as it felt USDCHF had done a lot, but also noting it is

becoming well subscribed in the HF community. With zero yield though, CHF will continue to

struggle in a world where the Fed are expected to hike and US continues to look strong, so still

think buying dips in USDCHF make sense, or using CHF as a funder to high yields. Otherwise

worth noting FX intervention data showed less than expected, and whilst we have not been short

solely on SNB intervention, does mean CHF rallies could go deeper than one would like.

CAD USD/CAD is back near recent highs, despite Thursday’s softer-than-expected US payrolls print,

which saw the greenback back off from its recent highs. Last week was the deadline for the

USMCA negotiations and, as expected, the Trump administration formally declined to support

Canada and Mexico in extending the agreement, instead pushing for annual reviews. This

outcome was hardly a surprise and had limited immediate impact on CAD, but it should remain