The Point for Latin America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Latin America

Point |

Monday, 06 July 2026

Company | Industry | Global | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Company

Ambev (ABEV3.SA) - 2Q26 Preview: Recovery Set to Gain Traction

We expect 2Q26 to mark another step toward a more constructive operating

backdrop for Ambev. Brazil Beer volumes should return to healthy growth,

supported by exceptionally easy June comparisons and the global football

tournament. That said, our Weather Tracker suggests climate conditions were

broadly neutral versus last year, rather than the meaningful tailwind many had

anticipated (see report link), while consumer fundamentals remain relatively soft.

As a result, we forecast Brazil Beer volumes up 5.8% YoY, which we view as a

healthy recovery that strikes the right balance between improving industry trends

and still-modest consumer fundamentals. We expect consolidated EBITDA to

grow 3.6% YoY, driven by a stronger Brazil Beer performance and gradually

improving profitability across most businesses, while cost should continue to ease

into 2H26. Trading at 16x 2026E P/E, we maintain our Neutral rating, recognizing

that the operating backdrop is becoming increasingly constructive should volume

recovery prove sustainable.

Renata Cabral | Luis Felipe Terzariol

Usiminas (USIM5.SA) - 2Q26 Outlook - Steel Resilience Amidst Mining

Headwinds

We anticipate Usiminas's 2Q26 results to reflect a mixed operational quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA is estimated at R$685mn (+5% QoQ and 68% YoY). While the

mining segment faces pressures from higher freight costs and volume contraction,

the steel division is likely to show resilience with favorable price dynamics across

key product lines and a residual better mix from negotiations in 1Q26. WK will face

pressure due to current forfaiting reduction process.