The Economy Next Week

Research evidence excerpt

The Economy Next Week

ected in wage statistics mainly during April–

May each year. We will continue to closely monitor full-time workers' scheduled cash

earnings (broadly equivalent to full-time workers' base pay) to see whether wage hikes

remain broadly on a par with the previous year.

MayFamilyIncomeandExpenditureSurvey,realhouseholdspending(households

withtwoormoremembers;Tuesday): We estimate a 1.1% m-o-m rise in May 2026

real household spending (households with two or more members). We expect household

spending to have staged a modest recovery in April-May, with average spending up 1.7%

in comparison to January-March.

The June survey of manufacturers' production forecasts points to a 2.2% rise in the output

of consumer goods in July versus the April-June average (adjusted by Nomura using

average realization and amendment rates). However, production forecasts for consumer

durables, including automobiles and home appliances, envisage a 1.1% decline. We

caution that consumer spending could be depressed in the summer, if spending on

durable goods (e.g., automobiles), which have been holding up relatively well, were to

moderate.

JuneEconomyWatchersSurvey,currentconditionsDI(Wednesday): We expect

June 2026 grassroots sentiment (the current conditions DI) to improve from the previous

month. Tensions in the Middle East began to ease with peace talks being held between

the US and Iran on 21-22 June, ahead of the survey period (25-30 June).

Among related indicators, the new orders index (54.0, +0.8pt m-o-m), included in the

manufacturing PMI, suggests that solid domestic demand boosted sentiment.

In addition, May data showed signs that supply constraints on the volume side (e.g., raw

material shortages), are easing. Real imports and inventories of naphtha (a primary raw