Tyson Foods: 3Q26 Earnings Preview & Metrics to Monitor

Research evidence excerpt

Tyson Foods: 3Q26 Earnings Preview & Metrics to Monitor

Alexia Howard +1 917 344 8453 alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com 2 July 2026

begins, it takes at least a couple of years for the number of cattle for processing to increase, so Tyson’s Beef segment will likely

remain challenged for the foreseeable future. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced certain incentives for

ranchers to rebuild the herd, like opening working land and expanding risk-mitigation tools, but our understanding is that the

effectiveness of these initiatives is limited.

As a reminder, a period of heifer retention (and herd rebuilding) would likely be accompanied by a heifer % (of total

on-feed inventory) in the low- to mid-30%s.3 Once heifer slaughter rates do eventually decline, it would be a near-term

negative for the beef processors as utilization rates decline, but a medium-term positive as herd populations rebuild to healthier

and more sustainable levels. For further detail, please see our most recent beef primer (U.S. Food and Restaurants: Beef primer

- will there ever be more cowbell?) and the transcripts of our conversations earlier this year and last with Dr. Josh Maples, a

professor of Agricultural Economics at Mississippi State University (A discussion of the cattle supply outlook with Dr. Josh

Maples (Webinar Transcript) and A discussion of the cattle supply outlook with Dr. Josh Maples (Webinar Transcript)).

Chicken

The Chicken segment continues to operate at high levels, likely close to maximum capacity utilization. The price

of Tyson’s more value-added chicken remains strong, but management expects continued healthy demand especially in

foodservice channels. So even though commodity chicken players seem to be facing a more challenging summer, Tyson’s