Matsuzawa’s View: Macro Strategy Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa’s View: Macro Strategy Weekly

Global Markets Research

Matsuzawa’s View: Macro Strategy Weekly 3 July 2026

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research Analysts

Inflation expectations rise despite lower oil prices Strategy

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

Is the US also behind the curve? naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3864

• This author expects equities to be mixed, bonds to be soft, USD to be solid, and JPY

to be soft in the week of 6 July.

• The Fed’s shift towards rate hikes may be shown to reflect not only higher crude oil

prices but also its assessment of the economy.

• There are signs that supply/demand conditions are worsening for long-term bonds,

starting with Japan due to its reflationary measures, and there are concerns that the

US is behind the curve.

• Share prices will likely move on macro factors until US corporate earnings results are

released, and investors could shift from tech stocks to cyclicals.

• FX interventions are typically unannounced, and the only justification we see in the

near term is to prevent bond market disruption.

A week to redraw Fed rate hike expectations

In the week of 6 July, the main theme is likely to be the reasons for and implications of

steepening in the bond market. Sub-themes will likely include global economic recovery,

the US and Japan being behind the curve, the reasons for the Fed’s shift towards rate

hikes, capital rotation within and outside of tech stocks, and an unannounced currency

intervention. In the US, key events to watch include the FOMC minutes, Fed speak

(Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams), 10yr and 30yr

UST auctions, and the release of ISM services data and the weekly jobs data. In Japan,

the key events will be the BOJ branch manager meeting, 5yr and 30yr JGB auctions, and