The Point for Europe

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Europe

d by strong markets, particularly in EM, which bodes positively for

future demand and for fee margins. Ahead of 2Q26 results, we are above VA

consensus expectations across all covered names, but especially ABDN and EMG.

At sector level, we prefer exchanges and wealth platforms over asset managers,

given the latter’s greater relative gearing to increasingly narrow and volatile

markets. Within Alts, our preferred names remain BPT and CVC, reflecting

attractive earnings upside, strong fundamentals and discounted valuations.

Within traditional managers, we favour wealth-exposed franchises, with ABDN

offering particularly compelling earnings and re-rating potential.

Nicholas Herman | Hannah Leivdal | Andrew Lowe, CFA

Company

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN.L) - 2Q26 preview – Expect guidance unchanged. All

about 2H events.

AZN reports 2Q26 results Mon 27th July. We forecast EPS $2.41 +11%cc, c3% below

cons on SG&A spend and expect guidance unchanged (LDD EPS growth). Focus for

results/call likely on upcoming 2H PIII catalysts (Wainua CARDIO-TTRansform,

Datroway AVANZAR, Camizestrant SERENA-4, where we see positive risk-reward

given investor caution. Our 7% downside DCF scenario on failure remains c15%

above current price and 13% DCF upside scenario on positive data is c40% above.

We also flag potential for c8% combined DCF upside from: 1) Detailed Tozorakimab

(IL33) COPD data likely at ERS which could see our unadjusted peak sales increase

to $7bn (cons risk-adjusted $4bn); 2) Approval of efzimfotase alfa in pediatric

onset adult hypophosphatasia ($3bn of our $4.4bn unadjusted peak) with

detailed PIII HICKORY data (potentially ASBMR in Oct) and any filing update

commentary a potential value unlock. Maintain Buy for best pipeline/best growth

in sector.