US Auto Manufacturers: US Light Vehicle Sales & Inventory Update

Research evidence excerpt

US Auto Manufacturers: US Light Vehicle Sales & Inventory Update

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06 Jul 2026 01:19:58 ET │ 15 pages

US Auto Manufacturers

US Light Vehicle Sales & Inventory Update

CITI'S TAKE

Michael Ward AC

June US light vehicle sales ended at the high end of expectations. Tarriff-related pre- +1-212-816-5754

buying pushed the SAAR above 17 million in March and April last year, and the payback

michael.p.ward@citi.comset up easier comps for May and June. The SAAR in June totaled 16.5 million, the fourth

straight month above 16.0 million, and incentive spending was lower and relatively flat

since the beginning of 2024. US light vehicle dealer inventory ended in June at 2.69

million units, up 2.6% YOY but 30% below the average pre-covid. Positive demand

trends and inventory discipline have supported an improved pricing environment and

shifting demographics have created a better mix. Dealer stocks are the most highly

correlated to sales and pricing trends and the stocks of the vehicle manufacturers tend

to move more on inventory and production trends. The recent US demand and pricing

trends are positive for the Dealers heading into earnings season.

US Light Vehicle Sales — June sales increased 2.9% on a daily selling rate basis (25

vs 24), pushing 2Q sales to 4.2 million units, up 0.5% and the highest 2Q comp since

2021. The SAAR in June totaled 16.5 million, and the fourth straight month above

16.0 million. YTD Sales were down 2.8% and our full-year 2026 estimate of 16.15

million light vehicles assumes a 1.5% increase in the second half.

Positive Pricing Trends — Average transaction prices in the US have increased

steadily since 4Q 2024 and increased 1.5% in 2Q. Incentive spending has been

relatively flat as a percentage of ATPs since early-2024 and averaged 6.5% in 2Q and