LatAm Oil & Gas: US Energy Trip Feedback: Discipline Over Conviction. Mon Jul 06 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Oil & Gas: US Energy Trip Feedback: Discipline Over Conviction. Mon Jul 06 2026

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

05 July 2026

LatAm Oil & Gas

US Energy Trip Feedback: Discipline Over Conviction

We recently spent a week in the US meeting management teams and investors Latam Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals

ACacross the energy sector, combining JPM's US sector conference with company Milene Clifford Carvalho

meetings in Houston and Midland. The trip pointed to a consistent theme: across (55-11) 4950-3475

a range of macro views, discipline now takes precedence over conviction. Few milene.carvalho@jpmorgan.com

management teams are willing to commit capital behind a higher-oil thesis, and the Henrique Cunha, CFA

prevailing posture is one of cost efficiency and the protection of shareholder (55 11) 4950 3623

returns at lower prices, with upside treated as optionality. That mindset framed the henrique.r.cunha@jpmorgan.com

conversation across four areas we explore below: a macro debate split between Rodolfo Angele, CFA

near-term tightness and longer-term demand risk; a clear preference for (55-11) 4950-3888

rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.com

downstream margins over E&P; a Permian defined by capex discipline; and Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

investor feedback on our LatAm coverage that continues to center on Petrobras.

See the main takeaways below.

• Macro views: near-term tightness, long-term demand debate. The macro

picture divides into two horizons. In the near term, expectations point to higher

oil prices, underpinned by tight inventories and a supply-normalization cycle

that has yet to fully play through. The more compelling - and less settled -

question concerns the long term: with supply expansion widely anticipated,