Vietnam: Investment boom lifts growth as inflation cools

Research evidence excerpt

Vietnam: Investment boom lifts growth as inflation cools

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

06 July 2026

Vietnam: Investment boom lifts

growth as inflation cools

Growth accelerated sharply in 2Q26, driven by investment and manufacturing. EM, Economic and Policy Research

• Inflation slowed down significantly, mainly on lower energy prices. Mahmoud Harb

(65) 6882-1640

• We raise our 2026 growth forecast to 7.8% and lower our average inflation mahmoud.harb@jpmorgan.com

forecast to 4.4%. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

• Policy trade-offs are sharpening as a record trade deficit puts pressure on the

VND while the SBV tries to balance supportive credit conditions and exchange

rate stability.

Our bottom-line view: Friday’s data painted a picture of solid GDP growth during

1H2026, led by surging investment and faster manufacturing activity. Exports

remained robust despite a challenging external backdrop, while construction and

agriculture gained momentum. At the same time, inflation fell sharply on lower

fuel prices. We maintain a constructive view on Vietnam’s outlook, raising our

2026 growth forecast to 7.8% from 7.3% and lowering our average inflation

forecast to 4.4% from 4.6%. We project year-end inflation at 4.3%.

While strong investment could lift potential growth over time, we think the

current momentum will require careful macroeconomic management. The

investment surge is likely contributing to a record trade deficit at a time when

Vietnam has been facing steady capital outflows. Keeping the exchange rate stable

against these pressures while also trying to maintain supportive credit conditions

through policy guidance and macroprudential easing raises tensions in the

monetary policy framework and could generate risks for macroeconomic and