Large Cap Banks 2Q26 Preview: Strong Markets Key Driver Of 2Q, To Continue Into 2H; Surprise C&I Loan Growth Slowdown - Private Credit?

Research evidence excerpt

Large Cap Banks 2Q26 Preview: Strong Markets Key Driver Of 2Q, To Continue Into 2H; Surprise C&I Loan Growth Slowdown - Private Credit?

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

06 July 2026

Large Cap Banks 2Q26 Preview

Strong Markets Key Driver Of 2Q, To Continue Into 2H;

Surprise C&I Loan Growth Slowdown - Private Credit?

We expect 2Q results to likely be marked by two key highlights: 1) Stronger than Banks — Large-Cap

ACguided investment banking and trading revenues, and the outlook for these Vivek Juneja

revenues should remain strong, which bodes well for 2H revenues and earnings. (1-212) 622-6465

2) Some uncertainty about C&I loan growth outlook for 3Q given trends in Fed H8 vivek.juneja@jpmorgan.com

data, which as of June 24 shows a sharp slowdown in period end C&I plus NBFI Andrew J Dietrich AC

loan growth led especially by a sharp slowdown in NBFI loans from the growth rate (1-212) 622-4244

in prior quarters for the last couple of years. This slowdown comes despite aj.dietrich@jpmorgan.com

continued pressures at private credit funds from high redemption requests. There Sai M Nettem

is one more week of data to come but it is unclear how much trends will change in (1-212) 622-2666

sai.nettem@jpmorgan.com

the last week. However, average growth qoq in C&I plus NBFI loans in 2Q should J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

remain strong. Interest rate outlook has shifted to one hike expected by the market

through YE26 from no change at 3/31 - we expect this would have a very modest

direct impact; the more important read-through is for the economy and inflation. Select Recent Reports:

Spending growth yoy increased some in 2Q, boosted by tax refunds and rising Fed Weekly: Weak C&I & NBFI Loan

prices - underlying unit sales bear watching.