Today‘s Morning Meeting: July Chartbook: Rotation and broadening is on the cards for 2H, from what was an extremely narrow participation in Q2... the unwind of stagflation fears is the catalyst

Research evidence excerpt

Today‘s Morning Meeting: July Chartbook: Rotation and broadening is on the cards for 2H, from what was an extremely narrow participation in Q2... the unwind of stagflation fears is the catalyst

CEEMEA Equity Research

CEEMEA First to Market 06 July 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Key Strategy & Macro Publications | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM

Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting

Equity Strategy (Mislav Matejka, CFA)

July Chartbook: Rotation and broadening is on the cards for 2H, from what was an extremely narrow

participation in Q2… the unwind of stagflation fears is the catalyst

We have consistently argued since 2nd half of March to use the equity weakness brought on by the Iran conflict to buy into, as

the off ramp and the eventual deal were likely, in our view. If the conflict impact keeps getting priced out, as we suspect, then oil

price, inflation rates, inflation expectations, bond yields, central banks rate projections, and even eventually USD, could all

continue reversing their upmove that was seen during Q2. Now, what does one do with the latest selloff in AI space, especially

in light of record low breadth that took place in Q2. We stay with the view that AI is unlikely to be the only story in town in 2H, in

contrast to 2025, and look for broadening in market participation, potentially catalysed by the fall in oil price to lower levels than

consensus believes, and easing in the hawkish tilt by central banks, especially if inflation moves significantly lower. Having said

that, we think that the latest weakness in SOX and in Korea will be used as an opportunity to add, as semis upcycle is not

peaking anytime soon, meaningful supply is not likely to arrive before 2028, even as it remains cyclical. At the overall equity