LONG UNICREDIT: Count them in

Research evidence excerpt

LONG UNICREDIT: Count them in

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales - European Financials AC (44-20) 7134-0355 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 05 July 2026

Gigi Sparling

+44 207 134 0355

ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

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Long Unicredit: Count them in. Whilst admittedly this was also in the weekly last week - we get Unicredit’s tender offer results

from its Commerzbank offer this coming Wednesday and Delphine added Unicredit to Positive Catalyst Watch earlier this week

as she thinks management will upgrade guidance at Q2 results here. A reminder that as of June 19th Unicredit have around 42%

(27% share holding + c.12.5% tendered +3% share settled derivatives) ownership. On top of that they have cash settled TRS for

13%. Orcel has said at a conference post June 19th that all non-passive institutional investors bar 5 have tendered their shares. The

most likely scenario at this point is that Unicredit have control of Commerzbank i.e. over a 40% shareholding – the question being

whether that could nudge towards 50% ex the cash settled TRS which would be a positive. If the ECB give Unicredit

authorization to go beyond a 30% stake, the next decision by the regulator is whether Unicredit have control i.e. need to

consolidate the RWAs – which we think will be the case. At that point Unicredit’s CET1 ratio drops to around 12.5%. The higher

the UCG shareholding at the end of the offer period (which we find out next week) the better that CET1 ratio will look – but also