Global Commodities: The Week in Commodities

Research evidence excerpt

Global Commodities: The Week in Commodities

Natasha Kaneva AC Global Markets Strategy

(1-212) 834-3175 03 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

Qatar Energy continues broadly stable operations, as we estimate it loaded four LNG cargoes

during the week, implying about 20% utilization rate on a seven-day moving average basis.

This is slightly below the estimated 25% utilization rate, achieved last week. Worth noting

that these utilization rates are based on loading data, while the transit via Hormuz remains

limited following the escalation over the weekend and Qatari warning about non-commercial

maritime activities. Accordingly, most of these loaded vessels appear idle in the Gulf as the

last LNG tanker exited the Strait on June 25 and the last delivery to Kuwait was on June 21

(UAE on June 14).

European Natural Gas: Demand & Storage Tracker: Summer swelter

For the week of June 22-28, total natural gas demand in NWE+UK averaged 327 Mcm/day,

2% lower WoW but 14% higher than the same period last year, driven by higher non-

residential demand. Over the week, residential demand declined by 13 Mcm/day WoW (-

22%) in continental Europe and by 7 Mcm/day (-12%) in the UK. However, this was partially

offset by higher non-residential demand (+13 Mcm/day WoW), which we associate with

higher gas burns offseting lower wind and nuclear output. The region experienced the hottest

week of the summer so far, as the weekly average CDDs doubled in the region and tripled in

the UK. Overall, in the TTF region, June CDDs are materializing at 160 CDDs, about 3.5

stdev hotter than 10 year average. July is also forecast to be exceptionally hot, with 263

CDDs, compared to 114 CDDs last year and almost 4.5 stdev hotter than 10 year average of

111 CDDs.