Key Currency Views: Carry plays even if USD takes a break

Research evidence excerpt

Key Currency Views: Carry plays even if USD takes a break

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

03 July 2026

Key Currency Views

Carry plays even if USD takes a break

• The “bullish dollar” leg could take a breather following the US Global FX Strategy

AC employment report, but the data is still firm enough to prevent a Meera Chandan

substantial weakening. Upcoming FOMC minutes and inflation data will (44-20) 7134-2924

keep FX markets vigilant. meera.chandan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• We stick with the bullish dollar view in our recommendations, but our Arindam Sandilya

models have turned more neutral on USD. (65) 6882-7759

• Conditions are looking better on margin for the “Bullish beta” leg of the arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com

view for now, i.e. for carry to extend its already stellar performance (+5- JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

10% YTD). Patrick R Locke

(1-212) 834-4254

• Growth and equity momentum is starting to improve outside the US; if US patrick.r.locke@jpmchase.com

data does not provide an imminent signal for the Fed, carry is the place to J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

be. James Nelligan

• High-yielding energy importers (INR, HUF, TWD, ZAR ) are screening (44-20)james.nelligan@jpmorgan.com3493-6829

particularly well given the recent boost in terms of trade/ lower oil prices. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

CAD is the most carry-efficient exporter short. Ben K Jarman

• Targets: GBP, COP, PEN marked higher; Antipodeans, NOK, BRL (61-2) 9003-7982

marked slightly lower this week. ben.k.jarman@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

• G10: EUR/USD 1.13-1.14 2H, 1.10 2H27. USD/JPY 164. EUR/GBP 3Q Anezka Christovova

0.87 (0.88), 4Q 0.88 (0.89). AUD/USD 3Q 0.70 (0.71). NZD/USD 3Q to 0.60 (44-20) 7742-2630

(0.62).