Shizuoka Financial Group (5831): Earnings model update

Research evidence excerpt

Shizuoka Financial Group (5831): Earnings model update

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

03 July 2026

Shizuoka Financial Group (5831) Overweight

5831.T, 5831 JP

Earnings model update Price (03 Jul 26):¥3,232

▲Price Target (Dec-26):¥3,500

Prior (Dec-26):¥3,260

We raise our price target by 7% from ¥3,260 to ¥3,500 and maintain our Overweight

rating. We calculate our price target through end-2026 of ¥3,500 based on our FY2027 Japan Equity Research

EPS forecast of ¥269.3 and a target P/E of 13x. Our previous price target of ¥3,260 was Banks

based on a target P/E of 13x and our previous FY2027 EPS forecast of ¥250.9. We AC Takahiro Yano, CFA

raise our earnings estimates mainly to reflect our outlook for net interest income (NII) (81-3) 6736-8616

to improve. We continue to assume the BoJ raises Japan’s policy interest rate to 1.25% takahiro.yano@jpmorgan.com

in December 2026 and then to 1.50% in June 2027. Looking at NII, we slightly Kohichi Takano

upgrade our view of how fast yields on domestic lending will rise, and we upgrade our (81-3) 6736 8621

view of how much returns on investment securities improve given Shizuoka Financial kohichi.takano@jpmorgan.com

Group’s progress in portfolio reshuffling. We also raise our estimates for both bond JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

sale losses and equity sale gains. The outlook for trading gains/losses has deteriorated

slightly in net terms, but we expect yen bond returns to keep improving as Shizuoka Key Changes (FYE Mar)

FG books bond sale losses. Our net profit estimate is broadly unchanged for FY2026, Prev Cur Δ

and we raise it by 8% for FY2027. Our earnings estimates currently do not factor in Adj. EPS - 28E (¥) 250.87 269.35 7.4%

the impact from a merger with The Bank of Nagoya.

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