Expect 1.5% LFL sales growth for Q2-2026 with H1 EBITDA at CHF1,027m

Research evidence excerpt

Expect 1.5% LFL sales growth for Q2-2026 with H1 EBITDA at CHF1,027m

Elodie Rall AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-5911 03 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

elodie.rall@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Sika (Neutral; Price Target: CHF165.00)

Investment Thesis

We are N Sika. We believe market expectations are already reflecting a potential margin

miss. Furthermore, during our recent Industrials conference, Sika CFO stated that current

top-line guidance of 1-4% local currency growth included a minimal pricing element and

since then the company has pushed up pricing and thus whilst margins could be softer, we

see limited absolute risk to EBITDA expectations for 2026E. Also commentary on recent

trading was reassuring with the CFO stating that performance in EMEA and Americas

should be better than Q2 and whilst China accounts for a relatively larger portion of the

quarter (vs. Q1), performance is expected to be similar sequentially to Q1 and an improved

picture should be seen in H2 where less negative growth should be seen; also Asia ex China

is expected to remain strong. We would still remain mindful on execution, which has

disappointed in recent years.

Valuation

We derive our price target from an EV/EBITDA-based valuation methodology with an

enterprise value (EV) calculation as detailed herein. Our PT is derived using a 12x EV/

EBITDA multiple (below its long-term average given continued earnings disappointment

and lack of outperformance versus peers) and applying this to our 2027 EBITDA

estimate.We use the following formula to calculate EV: (Current Market Capitalisation) +

(Net Debt) + (2027E Fair value of minorities) + (Other EV which includes provisions for

fines and pension liabilities).

Risks to Rating and Price Target