Euro area IP: Mixed country-level data so far

Research evidence excerpt

Euro area IP: Mixed country-level data so far

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

03 July 2026

Euro area IP: Mixed country-level

data so far

The Euro area May IP data will be released on July 15. Ahead of this release, a Economic and Policy Research

number of countries released early information, including France, Spain and Raphael Brun-Aguerre

Portugal today. This information puts the Euro area May manufacturing output (33-1) 8703 2409

reading on a weak footing overall. Manufacturing output declined 1.0%m/m sa in raphael.x.brun-aguerre@jpmorgan.com

France and 0.3%m/m sa in Portugal, while it increased 0.9%m/m in Spain. Taking J.P. Morgan Securities plc

into account our flat forecast for Germany (due next week), this would leave the

Euro area manufacturing aggregate tracking a 0.2%m/m sa decline.

Looking at the information released today. The decline in French manufacturing

output was broad-based across sectors, including large declines in computers (-

2.3%m/m sa), transport (-2.8%) and chemical production (-2.1%). These declines

generally follow significant gains and overall leave manufacturing output in 2Q so

far 3.8% ar above the 1Q level. Some of these components (especially transport)

can be volatile. Looking through the noise, manufacturing output has moved

sideways in recent quarters. The PMI through June continues to signal weakness

in the French manufacturing sector. In Spain, manufacturing output in May was

boosted by chemical and metal production. The Spanish data can also be volatile.

But looking through the noise, Spanish manufacturing output has been trending up

since late 2024, in contrast to the French data.

French industrial production

Quarterly data use latest monthly data available

%q/q, saar %m/m

Weights 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26

Tot.