Fukuoka Financial Group (8354): Earnings model update

Research evidence excerpt

Fukuoka Financial Group (8354): Earnings model update

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

03 July 2026

Fukuoka Financial Group (8354) Neutral

8354.T, 8354 JP

Earnings model update Price (03 Jul 26):¥7,221

▲Price Target (Dec-26):¥7,470

Prior (Dec-26):¥6,890

We raise our price target by 8%, from ¥6,890 to ¥7,470, and maintain our Neutral

rating. Our end-December 2026 price target of ¥7,470 is based on our FY2027 EPS Japan Equity Research

estimate of ¥679.5 and a target P/E of 11x. Our previous price target of ¥6,890 was Banks

based on our previous FY2027 EPS estimate of ¥626.6 and a target P/E of 11x. We AC Takahiro Yano, CFA

raise our earnings estimates mainly to reflect an improved outlook for net interest (81-3) 6736-8616

income (NII) and securities sale gains/losses. We continue to assume the BoJ raises takahiro.yano@jpmorgan.com

the policy interest rate to 1.25% in December 2026 and then to 1.50% in June Kohichi Takano

2027. Regarding NII, we slightly raise the pace at which we expect the domestic (81-3) 6736 8621

loan yield to rise, and we also upgrade our view of returns on marketable securities kohichi.takano@jpmorgan.com

to reflect their replacement. For securities sale gains/losses, we see good progress JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

in booking valuation losses on yen bonds in 4Q FY2025, and we lower our outlook

for future bond sale losses. We raise our net profit estimates by 10% in FY2026 and Key Changes (FYE Mar)

8% in FY2027. Prev Cur Δ

Adj. EPS - 27E (¥) 503.80 556.19 10.4%

• Do not expect additional shareholder returns in 1Q FY2026: We expect Adj. EPS - 28E (¥) 626.57 679.50 8.4%

Fukuoka Financial Group to focus on raising its capital adequacy ratio for the

time being, and we do not expect it to announce share buybacks in FY2026-28.