Hong Kong Property: IH26E New Home Sales Hit 22-year High; Margin Recovery On Track

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Hong Kong Property: IH26E New Home Sales Hit 22-year High; Margin Recovery On Track

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03 Jul 2026 05:29:08 ET │ 11 pages

Hong Kong Property

1H26E New Home Sales Hit 22-year High; Margin Recovery On Track

CITI'S TAKE

Griffin Chan AC

Robust 1H26 residential transactions — 1H26E new home registrations at +852-2501-2438

c.12.5k units grew 34%yoy, clocking a 22-year high (i.e. the strongest 1H griffin.chan@citi.com

performance since the post-SARS rebound in 1H04). Secondary volume

was 22.6k units, up 43%yoy, a 5-year high. The strong 1H performance Cindy Li AC

presents upside to our FY26E volume forecast of 21.2k units of primary sales +852-2501-2710

and 44.5k units of secondary sales. cindy.li@citi.com

Sentiment overhang in July from China Outbound Direct Investment rules — We

expect registration data to soften temporarily in July, noting that registrations

typically lag transactions by around 15 days. Transaction activity has moderated in

recent weeks, reflecting: (1) slower launches by developers following a strong 1H; (2)

correction in HK equities; (3) buyer hesitation amid uncertainty & volatile news flow

surrounding China’s ODI regulations, which may take 1–2 months to stabilize; (4)

narrower room for price negotiation in the secondary market after price recovery; (5)

Jul-Aug is a seasonally peak period for rent, not purchase. That said, we view these

as largely cyclical headwinds, while structurally, HK housing demand is anchored by

population inflow & demographic upgrades, and home price upcycle is underpinned

by the temporary supply shortage in 2026-28E.

Our thoughts on developers: 1H result a potential support to share performance

— The recent share price correction is likely due to: (i) expectations of higher US