Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas: Growing Pains

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas: Growing Pains

Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas

02 July 2026 Citi Research

If not government data, what data should markets follow? At the same Sintra

panel, Chair Warsh remarked that the central bank would no longer "rely solely on

data that we get from government agencies with mismeasurement problems" and

said he preferred "real-time, private sector data" at the June presser. Chair Warsh

has yet to announce who will head the data task force (former BoE Chief King has

been tapped for the communication task force) and it is unclear how exactly private

sector data will be incorporated. Currently, both the establishment (payrolls) and

household (unemployment) are surveys that are sent out to businesses and the

public. These numbers are then revised when more responses come in and then

benchmarked annually to the QCEW which is based on taxpayer information. The

Fed could choose to incorporate private sector data, like ADP and Paychex, which

are transactional payroll data. But their data is skewed towards their respective

clients (ADP - mid/large firms, Paychex - small businesses). Revelio is inferred from

public profiles that cover two-thirds of employed individuals but it leans heavily on

models to correct for online presences and industries. Gusto also focuses on small

businesses and measures hires and terminations while weighing the sample

population to match the QCEW. Figure 2 shows these employment indicators

compared to nonfarm payrolls over the past two years. Recently, these private labor

market indicators have turned more positive while payrolls have been more stable

(to weaker) since March.

Private sector labor market data is mixed so far. We take inspiration from our US