GCC Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

GCC Weekly

ugh official reserve holdings are relatively small

We had expected a return to surplus, but at a lower US$1.1bn,given that a significant share of external assets is managed by

implying a roughly US$3bn upside surprise. The strongertheir sovereign wealth funds. Oman recorded a modest

current account starting point suggests risks for a narrowerincrease through April, and we expect further accumulation in

CAD in 2026 compared to our current forecast of a 3% ofcoming months as higher oil receipts filter through. This

GDP current account deficit.reflects the local oil selling price, which typically lags Brent

by around two months.

Figure 2: Saudi current account breakdown

Saudi Arabia has recorded the strongest reserve accumulation US$ bn Broad oil exports** Other trade % Net travel Other services

in both nominal and relative terms. SAMA's FX reserves 125 Primary income Secondary income 25

increased by US$12bn between February and May despite a 100 CAB % of GDP - rhs 20

75 15

US$6.6bn decline in the latest month. Notably, the sharp 50 10

increase during 1Q26 coincided with a sizeable US$22bn 25 5

portfolio outflow (see Saudi Arabia section below). 0 0

-25 -5

-50 -10

Bahrain has been the clear exception. Following an initial -75 -15

increase in March, the Central Bank of Bahrain's FX reserves -100 -20

Q1-19 Q1-20 Q1-21 Q1-22 Q1-23 Q1-24 Q1-25 Q1-26

declined by US$1.7bn in April and a further US$2.0bn in Source: SAMA, J.P. Morgan *oil, petrochemicals, and oil related items

May, reducing the already modest reserve stock to just

US$3.0bn. This represents the lowest level since 2020 and The goods balance improved materially, rising to US$30.1bn

covers only around 1.5 months of imports of goods and ser- from US$20.7bn in 4Q25. Oil exports increased to

vices.