European Banks Daily

Research evidence excerpt

European Banks Daily

Kian Abouhossein AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4575 03 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

kian.abouhossein@jpmorgan.com

We expect loan growth to be the key stock price driver in the upcoming 1Q27 results. Our

discussions point to easing balance transfer-out/refinancing trends, helped by expectations of

mortgage rates bottoming and, in part, 1Q seasonality. NIMs are likely to contract q/q across the

board, while AQ should remain benign. We upgrade Bajaj HF to N (from UW) and place it on

Positive Catalyst Watch, as we expect loan growth guidance to beat expectations (FY27E Street/

JPM: 22/25%; 1QFY27A 24% y/y) alongside prudent CoF management this quarter. We believe

the franchise is best-in-class and warrants a premium, which we see as adequately reflected in

21x/2.55x FY28E PE/PB. PNB HF remains our top pick, while we are Neutral on LIC HF.

Chiba Bank (8331):Earnings model update

Takahiro Yano, CFA (81-3) 6736-8616

We raise our price target by 9% from ¥2,640 to ¥2,890 and maintain our Overweight rating. We

calculate our end-2026 price target of ¥2,890 using our FY2027 EPS forecast of ¥206.7 and a

target P/E of 14x. Our previous price target of ¥2,640 was based on our previous FY2027 EPS

forecast of ¥188.7 and a target P/E of 14x. We raise our earnings estimates mainly because we

upgrade our outlook for net interest income (NII) and stock-related gains/losses. We continue to

assume the BoJ raises Japan’s policy interest rate to 1.25% in December 2026 and then to 1.50%

in June 2027. Regarding NII, we slightly raise the pace at which we expect the domestic loan

yield to rise, and we also upgrade our view of returns on marketable securities to reflect their

replacement. Regarding stock-related gains/losses, we believe the outlook for sale gains has