INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 3, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• The debasement trade (Gold+, Dollar -, Curve steeper) is roaring back. I would still keep Gold

exposure via options while owning some EU Miners in the portfolio.

• Our view remains that the global macro regime should stay in recovery/expansion (vs

stagflation). JPM Economists raised GDP forecasts for Europe after a series of good news on

inflation, sentiment, employment & lending. Government’s reform efforts in Germany are also

picking up momentum - a shift that could help restore business & consumer confidence, crowd

private capex into its fiscal easing and lift trend growth by 20bp-30bp

• We like secular themes but still see the need for factor hedges. Below an update on Flows &

Positioning including flows snapshot for Europe and Asia.

• Main catalysts NEXT WEEK = OPEC+, ISM, Nato Summit, ECB & FOMC Minutes, China CPI/PPI &

ruling on Le Pen (important for La France, less relevant for markets).

• JPM Research: Gold has re-correlated to real yields and Greg’s base case is for a range-bound

Gold in the near team while retaining a long-term bullish outlook for gold. Forecast update:

$4500/oz ($6000/oz prev) in 4Q26 & $5000/oz ($6300/oz prev) in 4Q27.

MKT INTEL VIEWS: Equities trading higher this am with Momentum/AI bouncing (KOSPI2 +4.5%). Post

a soft NFP and Warsh remarks on Weds, the BBG report that Trump and his allies are renewing a push to

reshape the Fed helps the debasement trade (Gold+, Dollar -, Curve steeper) roaring back. I still like Gold

exposure via options while owning EU Miners in the portfolio.

Our view remains that the global macro regime should stay in recovery/expansion (vs stagflation) and

JPM Economists continued to raise 2H26 growth forecasts.