SoftBank (9434): Earnings model update: Where is upside potential to new MTP?

Research evidence excerpt

SoftBank (9434): Earnings model update: Where is upside potential to new MTP?

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

03 July 2026

SoftBank (9434) Overweight

9434.T, 9434 JP

Earnings model update: Where is upside potential to Price (02 Jul 26):¥210

new MTP? ▼Price Target (Dec-27):¥240 Prior (Dec-26):¥250

We revise our earnings forecasts and price target to reflect FY2025 results and the

new MTP for FY2026–30. The stock underperformed TOPIX by about 10% from Japan Equity Research

SoftBank’s FY2025 results announcement on May 11 through July 2. We believe IT Services and Telecoms

this correction stems from (1) the new MTP’s dividend policy and net profit growth AC Matthew Henderson

targets missing market expectations, (2) a slowdown in smartphone contract (81-3) 6736-8831

volume due to LTV ratio-focused measures, and (3) an uncertain earnings outlook matthew.henderson@jpmorgan.com

in growth investment areas (data center-related business, SB OAI Japan). We think JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

the risk of parent company share sales has eased and see upside to the new MTP

(management called the announced values cautious). We forecast SoftBank’s

Style Exposure

three-year (FY2026–28) EPS CAGR at 6.7%, second among Japan’s big three

telecoms. We believe the share price correction post-FY2025 results was an

overreaction and SoftBank’s investment appeal has increased, so we maintain our

Overweight rating.

• FY2026 forecasts: We expect sales to grow 7.1% YoY to ¥7,539.7 billion

(Bloomberg consensus: ¥7,494.5 billion), operating profit to rise 5.7% to

¥1,101.6 billion (¥1,126.5 billion), and adjusted EBITDA to grow 7.6% to

¥1,957.0 billion (¥1,931.0 billion). Our operating profit forecast is down from