Telco Chatter: Jul 3: US C-band auction, TMUS/Grain spectrum, TEL preview, ES KPIs

Research evidence excerpt

Telco Chatter: Jul 3: US C-band auction, TMUS/Grain spectrum, TEL preview, ES KPIs

cautious despite pullback (note here)

Telenor has returned -15% since 1-Apr and underperformed the sector (-4%). Within this,

the Q1 results were a particular soft point with the shares down 6% on the day, driven by a

guidance downgrade relating to top-line pressures in Finland and Bangladesh, alongside

some business transfers. Looking ahead to Q2 results, we expect sentiment to remain

negative as Norway becomes another headwind due to revenue and opex pressures. We

model Q2 group service revenues 0.5% below pre-Q1 consensus, group EBITDA 2%

below and FCF 4% below. Despite the recent pullback in the shares, we think the short-

term outlook remains hazy. We trim mid-term FCF estimates driven by lower EBITDA;

however, we remain Neutral with a Dec-27 price target of NOK160 (previously NOK170);

we balance the short-term risks with upside potential from further Asian divestments

(although timing is difficult to predict) and an attractive shareholder return story, which

includes a progressive dividend and a NOK 15bn buyback programme (2026-28).

TMUS – FCC approves spectrum swap with Grain

The FCC approved T-Mobile’s proposed spectrum swap with Grain Management under

which T-Mobile will transfer its 800MHz licences to Grain in exchange for $2.9bn in cash

and Grain’s 600MHz licences. The FCC said it imposed strict conditions on Grain to

address concerns raised in the consultation process about potential spectrum hoarding. The

FCC rejected Grain’s proposed build-out timelines of six years for an interim deadline and

12 years for a final deadline, and shortened them to three years and eight years,

respectively. Senator Ted Cruz had urged the FCC to require enforceable deployment