The Point for Latin America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Latin America

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Friday, 03 July 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Strategy & Economics | Global | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call

Mexico REITs - Resilient fundamentals regardless of USMCA outcome – Fibra

MTY at Buy and Fibra MQ at Neutral

We recently renewed our ratings after a period of Rating Suspended for five

companies in the Mexican Real Estate Sector; FMTY is a Buy and FMQ is Neutral.

We updated our models post the M&A activity where FibraMTY won the bid for

FIBRAMQ. While industrial market fundamentals are lukewarm (mainly in the

North), we see that companies are adjusting growth profiles to be more

acquisition- vs development-based. Chinese tenants are becoming important in

the market, being the fifth-largest tenant nationality, indicating that the tenant

base could be gradually favoring renting vs owing. Despite companies seemingly

favoring acquisitions, construction initiations are still hovering at 5m sqm per

year, not too far off from the peak of 7.5m in 2023. Regarding regions, Tijuana is

particularly oversupplied with vacancies at 16%, followed by Juarez at 9.1%, while

Mexico City is among the lowest at 4.1%.

Andre Mazini, CFA | Piero Trotta | Kiepher Kennedy

Mexico Economics Weekly - USMCA Under Annual Reviews: Uncertainty Clouds

Outlook

The US shift to annual USMCA reviews introduces significant structural

uncertainty, fundamentally altering the risk calculus for Mexico. This recurring

renegotiation cycle structurally impairs the investment climate, deterring long-

horizon capital commitments, particularly in the automotive, electronics, and

industrial manufacturing sectors. Weak private investment and declining business

confidence underscore the dominant downside risks to 2026 GDP growth, which