June 2026 BOJ Tankan (comprehensive data set)

Research evidence excerpt

June 2026 BOJ Tankan (comprehensive data set)

Global Markets Research

June 2026 BOJ Tankan (comprehensive data set) 2 July 2026

Economics - Japan

(1) More aggressive price-setting behavior midstream and Research Analysts

downstream too; (2) yen depreciation not necessarily of bad kind Japan Economics

Kyohei Morita - NSC

(i) Risk of bad yen depreciation if accompanied by rising crude oil prices; kyohei.morita@nomura.com

(ii) service-driven inflation likely to take some time +81 3 6703 1395

• The comprehensive data set of the June BOJ Tankan Survey indicates that

companies are becoming more aggressive in their price-setting behavior in the

midstream and downstream as well as the upstream parts of the supply chain. Recent

yen depreciation is not necessarily of the bad kind for companies, in other words, the

kind that results in a deterioration in Japan's terms of trade.

• Looking at output price forecasts for petroleum & coal products, chemicals, and

electric & gas utilities, which tend to be directly affected by crude oil prices, we see a

risk of yen depreciation becoming increasingly of the bad kind if it is accompanied by

rising crude oil prices.

• Underlying price trends are determined by (1) the macroeconomic output gap and (2)

longer-term inflation expectations. The June Tankan suggests that (2) longer-term

inflation expectations may have become less sensitive to actual inflation. Below, we

look at: (a) the relationship between corporate inflation expectations and actual

inflation; (b) the distribution of inflation expectations among companies; and (c) price-

setting behavior in services for individuals.

June BOJ Tankan (comprehensive data set): Focus on corporate price-setting

behavior and price outlooks