Brazil Equity Strategy: Short Squeeze Risk Meets Dividend Discipline

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Equity Strategy: Short Squeeze Risk Meets Dividend Discipline

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

03 July 2026

Brazil Equity Strategy

Short Squeeze Risk Meets Dividend Discipline

Our goal is to screen stocks with high short interest and sustainable dividend yields Latin America and Brazil Equity

—names that can benefit from a tactical sentiment rebound while offering some Strategy

downside cushion via cash returns. Under our screen, we highlight: Petrobras, Cinthya M Mizuguchi AC

Vale, Vivara, Cury, Smartfit, Localiza, Vamos, and Yduqs. The 2H backdrop is (55-11) 4950-6560

supportive but uneven. Global growth is holding up, sticky inflation keeps central cinthya.mizuguchi@jpmorgan.com

banks cautious, and AI capex remains a tailwind, while geopolitics continues to Emy Shayo Cherman

generate episodic risk. Within this environment, our global FX framework remains (55-11) 4950-6684

“bullish beta, bullish USD,” where cross-sectional winners are driven by EM high emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

carry and terms of trade. Brazil fits this playbook: high real rates, a proactive

central bank, and commodity-linked external accounts make the BRL more

compelling as a carry (USD/BRL) expression than as a structural weak-USD trade.

If Brazil stays among the best carry-adjusted opportunities in EM, that can help

support foreign flows into local rates and, by extension, equities. At the same time,

we are not positioning this as a structural rebound call. The risk list is real: a

stronger-USD regime, a still-noisy geopolitical backdrop, persistent outflows

(BRL ~8bn in June), and a more fragile easing path if sticky inflation forces the

central bank to pause due to higher expectations, stronger growth, or fiscal heat.