The Point for Europe

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Europe

Point |

Friday, 03 July 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Strategy & Economics | Commodities | Fixed Income & FX | Key Rating

and Target Price Changes

Top Call Must Read

Western Europe Aerospace & Defense - From growth to disbelief – what Global Economic Outlook & Strategy -

downgrades are priced in? Global Resilience—Could Growth

Following the recent decline in European defense stocks, we believe the market is Surprise to the Upside (Yet Again)?

pricing in implicit downgrades across most of the sector. Our analysis shows

current share prices imply 10-20% downgrades to 2030 consensus EBIT, even

using a conservative 3% growth post-2030 assumption. We view this as a

valuation floor, as we generally see stronger growth of 6-10% out to 2035.

Charles J Armitage

European Alternative Asset Managers - Eur Alts – Still Worried About Downside

Risks

In our recent Deep Dive report, we argued that AI disruption and geopolitical

uncertainty, amongst other factors, could impede the recovery in private markets

activity, ultimately resulting in slower industry growth vs expectations and

structurally lower multiples. This thesis appears to be playing out, at least for the

time being and we have a low conviction this could change over the next 6-12

months, especially if private credit defaults rise to 7% by end-2026. Most investors

we have spoken with since have agreed with this view. Yet global alts trade on 20x

FY27 FRE, well-above prior trough levels of 15x. We remain selective, favouring

managers with strong fundamentals and discounted valuations. Our top picks are

BPT and CVC. We move PGHN to Neutral/High Risk and place a negative Catalyst

Watch on EQT ahead of results, given downside to consensus estimates. Estimate

and TP changes are discussed in report.